Is the diecast market in trouble?

great thread. From my observations, I'd say the 1/43 scale is thiving. Going by our forum, general new releases and the number on sale on ebay, there are 430000+ listed there at the moment. 1/18 250000+ and yes 1/24 150000+. I'd be interested if anyone can recall or recorded what they were say 10-15 years ago. I reckon 1/18 is holding its own, CMC keep turning out new models regularly. I just cannot understand why a quality manufacturer will not give 1/24 a go. It appears quality can be made at a reasonable cost. Heres a genuine mint quality 1/24 Scale DONG FENG Golden Dragon CA71 Sedan that I bought a few weeks at $87, still available on ebay. OK I appreciate there may not be a big market for 1950s Chinese sedans in the U.S but my point is quality 1/24 can be made at a reasonable price point. There are 100s of lesser quality Japanese and European 1/24 models available too, some quite good, some not so. NEO and Esval both produced 2 1/24s each then stopped. The Esval Cadillac is one of the best 1/24s ever made IMHO. There is a tiny 1/24 light at the end of the tunnel with our local Australian maker DDA producing excellent quality models of local Fords and Holdens, A google search will bring them up. They are quite approachable and have always quickly responded to my emails, maybe send a quick one off suggesting trying an in demand not already made U.S car?

Posted by: @georgeschire

Posted by: @chris

Posted by: @georgeschire

I've yet to totally understand fully why here in America we can't put a decent 1:24 scale model out at a reasonable price.  The models don't need every "working part" and "key's" to go with it, just a nice somewhat "static" model that we as collectors can add to our shelves.

In order to mass produce decent 1/24 scale models at reasonable prices one needs to utilize "cheap labor,"  which doesn't really exist in America.  Resin static models are less expensive to produce, but there's no mass market for them, which equates to high MSRP.

The successful business model incorporates high mass-market demand, cheap labor, low tooling costs.  Three conditions that rarely add-up in America when one is discussing hobby items (scale models ).  We can find American examples that satisfy one or two of these conditions but RARELY all three.

1/24 & 1/25 scale PALSTIC unassembled models seems to enjoy world-wide popularity, but I'm not so certain that can be said for ASSEMBLED resin or diecast 1/24 & 1/25 models.

I'd be delighted if we could have models in 1:25 scale that were available in the 1950's and 60's that were known as "promotional models".  They were plastic with no opening doors, hood or trunks.  Usually they had interiors and sometimes a "friction" motor.  Back in that era they sold for anywhere between a $1 and $3, which in todays dollars would probably equate to around $25 (or so).  If they produced them, I'd be all over them.  I'd like to think that they wouldn't have high costs involved to produce them.  

I I loved all those models. I acquired a lot of my painting skills by detailing the chrome trim around the windows and other parts of the body that weren't molded in silver or chrome color. 

Steve 

Posted by: @100ford2003

Posted by: @georgeschire

Posted by: @chris

Posted by: @georgeschire

I've yet to totally understand fully why here in America we can't put a decent 1:24 scale model out at a reasonable price.  The models don't need every "working part" and "key's" to go with it, just a nice somewhat "static" model that we as collectors can add to our shelves.

In order to mass produce decent 1/24 scale models at reasonable prices one needs to utilize "cheap labor,"  which doesn't really exist in America.  Resin static models are less expensive to produce, but there's no mass market for them, which equates to high MSRP.

The successful business model incorporates high mass-market demand, cheap labor, low tooling costs.  Three conditions that rarely add-up in America when one is discussing hobby items (scale models ).  We can find American examples that satisfy one or two of these conditions but RARELY all three.

1/24 & 1/25 scale PALSTIC unassembled models seems to enjoy world-wide popularity, but I'm not so certain that can be said for ASSEMBLED resin or diecast 1/24 & 1/25 models.

I'd be delighted if we could have models in 1:25 scale that were available in the 1950's and 60's that were known as "promotional models".  They were plastic with no opening doors, hood or trunks.  Usually they had interiors and sometimes a "friction" motor.  Back in that era they sold for anywhere between a $1 and $3, which in todays dollars would probably equate to around $25 (or so).  If they produced them, I'd be all over them.  I'd like to think that they wouldn't have high costs involved to produce them.  

I I loved all those models. I acquired a lot of my painting skills by detailing the chrome trim around the windows and other parts of the body that weren't molded in silver or chrome color. 

Steve 

Unlike you, I was never able to master "painting skills" on those plastic models, but I sure enjoyed having them as a kid in the 1960's.  I probably shared this before here on one of the Forum's, but will mention again that from age 8 until I was 19 years old, I acquired 61 different promotional model cars. 

I had them on a shelf that hung on a wall in my bedroom.  Even though 61 models wasn't a huge collection, it was big at the time for me.  Sadly, in 1971 we had a house fire and those models from the heat of the fire, actually "melted in to the wall".  And oh man, the horrific smell of that melted plastic.  I will forever be sad that I lost those models! 

Imagine my delight when back in late 1989 when I learned about the Mints that produced 1:24 scale diecast cars.  I was thereafter like a kid on Christmas morning whenever a model would arrive on my doorstep.  

Posted by: @67gto

There is one area not directly mentioned: the economy. A good chunk of what were discretionary funds may have shifted to pay for necessities. Food, medical, utilities, transportation, and all housing related expenses have been subject to high unyielding inflation. The money has to come from somewhere.

It's a good point, yet there's no evidence to suggest this. The high inflation was caused directly by the fact that "everyone was buying everything."   Tremendous demand for all consumer products & services (including hobbies ) caused prices to rise, thereby creating inflation.

Only a few remedies can be considered: Do nothing and watch inflation skyrocket.  Tell people NOT to buy so much (yeah right, how well do you think that would go over? ) or raise interest rates to decrease demand/buying.

Higher interest rates have stymied inflation, but demand is still reasonably robust.  I see a ton of new hobby products poised for 4th-quater release and have no doubt about a positive sell through. 

Of course, sudden unforeseen world events, governmental actions, labor strikes, etc... could quickly alter/shape the very best, well thought out plans/proposals. We'll talk again on January 1st and compare notes. 😬 😏 😖 🤔 

@geoff-jowett Geoff, good points on the supply side, I believe there is oversupply, but is the demand staying strong? I guess, future will tell.

The market is not dwindling. It is changing. Younger folks are coming into the market. They're not interested in the models our generation is interested in. So, for the models we collect, it seems interest is waning. Yes, there are good deals out there for our areas of focus. But a lot of that comes from collections that are being liquidated for a variety of reasons. There is a glut of models hitting the market from estates, inheritances, folks selling while they can, etc. 

If you take the time to look at the Hot Wheels community, the folks who are collecting high-end resin models of exotic cars and Japanese cars of recent years (not cars from fifty years ago), those areas are thriving, particularly in the 1/43 and 1/64 scales. This is because the people who grew up in the eighties and nineties are now earning enough to indulge their collecting impulses. They could care less about models of the fifties or even the sixties. To them, all those old cars look the same! Check out makers like Ignition, Make-Up, Eidolon, and some of the other high-end 1/43 and 1/64 manufacturers and see how quickly their limited editions sell out and what they sell for on the secondary market. 

It's hard for us to understand that the 1/24 and 1/25 scales were popular only here in North America. There was/is no market for them anywhere else. The mints served us well. But when sales lagged because there were only so many color combinations of the same model folks would buy and the cost of new tooling sent prices skyrocketing, they got out. The last few 1/24 offerings from the mints were selling for over $200, and many collectors were hesitant to shell out. Anyone trying to get back in the market for high detail, opening features 1/24 scale model would have to charge $250 or more. With no prospect of a worldwide appeal and an ever-shrinking list of potential customers, it's just not feasible. If there were a viable business case for making these models, the mints would jump right on them again. So, why doesn't someone make promos again? Well, that market has shrunk as well. Go to any toy show, and you'll see bins of 1/25 promos being sold at near-giveaway prices. What was once a very healthy area of collecting began to shrink mostly due to the attrition of its collectors. 

My father-in-law recently passed away. He left behind a large collection of tin toys, trucks, airplanes, and such. He was a noted collector, and there were a lot of folks that knew of his collection. When he and I started talking about liquidation, almost fifteen years ago, his collection was valued at over $50,000. He couldn't bring himself to sell his babies. I get that! Now, we're getting offers of $5K-8K from reputable dealers. That's not from a weak market. The guys who valued those items are a much smaller group than before, and the vintage toy dealers are sitting on ever-growing inventories. 

So, if we look at the market with blinders on, it appears to be shrinking. But there is a lot of enjoyment going on in other areas of the collecting scale model cars market. It might be enlightening to explore some of those areas and share the joy of the hunt once again. 

Posted by: @67gto

There is one area not directly mentioned: the economy. A good chunk of what were discretionary funds may have shifted to pay for necessities. Food, medical, utilities, transportation, and all housing related expenses have been subject to high unyielding inflation. The money has to come from somewhere.

I agree here. Credit card debt is at all time high, the poor are getting poorer. On the other hand, for the more affluent people, savings are encouraged by higher interest rates. For the people who can afford collectibles, inflation alone would stimulate discretionary purchases as money devalue.

@jkuvakas Great analysis JK, and agree in general, although sensing a bit of confirmation bias. 

Posted by: @georgeschire

Posted by: @100ford2003

Posted by: @georgeschire

Posted by: @chris

Posted by: @georgeschire

I've yet to totally understand fully why here in America we can't put a decent 1:24 scale model out at a reasonable price.  The models don't need every "working part" and "key's" to go with it, just a nice somewhat "static" model that we as collectors can add to our shelves.

In order to mass produce decent 1/24 scale models at reasonable prices one needs to utilize "cheap labor,"  which doesn't really exist in America.  Resin static models are less expensive to produce, but there's no mass market for them, which equates to high MSRP.

The successful business model incorporates high mass-market demand, cheap labor, low tooling costs.  Three conditions that rarely add-up in America when one is discussing hobby items (scale models ).  We can find American examples that satisfy one or two of these conditions but RARELY all three.

1/24 & 1/25 scale PALSTIC unassembled models seems to enjoy world-wide popularity, but I'm not so certain that can be said for ASSEMBLED resin or diecast 1/24 & 1/25 models.

I'd be delighted if we could have models in 1:25 scale that were available in the 1950's and 60's that were known as "promotional models".  They were plastic with no opening doors, hood or trunks.  Usually they had interiors and sometimes a "friction" motor.  Back in that era they sold for anywhere between a $1 and $3, which in todays dollars would probably equate to around $25 (or so).  If they produced them, I'd be all over them.  I'd like to think that they wouldn't have high costs involved to produce them.  

I I loved all those models. I acquired a lot of my painting skills by detailing the chrome trim around the windows and other parts of the body that weren't molded in silver or chrome color. 

Steve 

Unlike you, I was never able to master "painting skills" on those plastic models, but I sure enjoyed having them as a kid in the 1960's.  I probably shared this before here on one of the Forum's, but will mention again that from age 8 until I was 19 years old, I acquired 61 different promotional model cars. 

I had them on a shelf that hung on a wall in my bedroom.  Even though 61 models wasn't a huge collection, it was big at the time for me.  Sadly, in 1971 we had a house fire and those models from the heat of the fire, actually "melted in to the wall".  And oh man, the horrific smell of that melted plastic.  I will forever be sad that I lost those models! 

Imagine my delight when back in late 1989 when I learned about the Mints that produced 1:24 scale diecast cars.  I was thereafter like a kid on Christmas morning whenever a model would arrive on my doorstep.  

George,

I'd say 61 models is quite a decent size collection. I never had that many models at one time. I think the only models I ever had were probably 5 to 10. I used to get one or two for Christmas and then maybe one or two on my birthday but that was it. 

The most special one I remember was the first promo model of the brand new Mustang that got shipped to me.  I think it was $1 or $2 and it came in the mail I was thrilled. The one I had was red and the one that my friend Paul got was kind of a turquoise blue color. 

Steve 

Posted by: @jkuvakas

They could care less about models of the fifties or even the sixties. To them, all those old cars look the same!

Yes, this has been noticed/reflected in 1:1 cars as well.  Over the past 10 years, many have decreased in value.

@chav, I can see that it might look that way. But I've been banging this drum for years, trying to help folks see that the hobby is larger than whatever their narrow range of interest might be. As folks who enjoy cars of all sizes, we would do well to welcome others who share that passion rather than lament that they don't care for the exact same cars we care for or don't engage in our favorite scale. As long as car manufacturers produce 1:1 cars, there will be a market for scale models. To think no one is interested in models because our favorite segment of the market is dwindling is a bit naive.  The model manufacturers may change, but the young man who daydreams about cars will always be there. As enthusiasts, we would do well to avoid minimizing his importance because there will always be a maker that rises to meet that need. It's how the market works.

Posted by: @jkuvakas

@chav, I can see that it might look that way. But I've been banging this drum for years, trying to help folks see that the hobby is larger than whatever their narrow range of interest might be. As folks who enjoy cars of all sizes, we would do well to welcome others who share that passion rather than lament that they don't care for the exact same cars we care for or don't engage in our favorite scale. As long as car manufacturers produce 1:1 cars, there will be a market for scale models. To think no one is interested in models because our favorite segment of the market is dwindling is a bit naive.  The model manufacturers may change, but the young man who daydreams about cars will always be there. As enthusiasts, we would do well to avoid minimizing his importance because there will always be a maker that rises to meet that need. It's how the market works.

JK, I don't think you got my point, I am not saying there is no interest, I am saying people have no discretionary funds to buy. There may be temporary slowing in demand but the future is bright. BTW, I collect all scales and wide range of years.

Just took a look at Ignition, Make-Up and Eidolon 1:43 models online. Very nice, but eye-watering prices for current models, and prices on eBay etc. are insane.

I see Eidolon say their models are suitable for age 15+ and their "recommended age" for purchasers is 17. I think that should say "60+ retired with a lot of disposable income".

All of the many points made in the above comments are valuable food for thought.  I could disagree with some of it, but much of what I'd disagree with, has already been shared by others. 

One thing I will add though, is there have always been different kinds of "model car buyers".  Most of them are like me and others here who bought what the mints offered because we were COLLECTING them.  We (or at least I) didn't purchase them at the issue price with the immediate thought of, "what will I be able to sell it for?", or "how much will it be worth tomorrow (i.e. next year and beyond)".  We bought them because they represented our youth and are cars we or our parents personally owned. 

We amassed many different models as time went on, and eventually, we had a collection that we display and enjoy.  Then there was the other "type of buyer", who would buy up several models of the same release, and then when the mints were sold out, these buyers would put the models on the secondary market at a higher price and make a profit.  But they weren't collectors.  They were in business for themselves. 

Another "kind of collector" was the kind who had interest in the modes at a certain time in their lives, but then when a life event occurred (as in moving, marriage, or needing money), their collections were sold off. 

The last type of collector (like me), never bought a model with any intent of selling it or getting rid of it.  I/we are the true collectors, that would rather give up a kidney than consider selling our little cars. Here on the Forum's over the years there have been questions and discussions about "what will happen to my/our collection when I/we die?", and the answers are many.  Among those answers are, a museum will get them, my family will get them, or they will be tossed out. 

This is (and has always been) my take on that question.  When I've bought a model, I've never for a moment thought that I'd buy it for an investment purpose.  I've added it to my collection because I like it and enjoy it.  And I will like and enjoy them until the day I leave the planet.  I can assure you, my daughters don't want my collection, so I've given them suggestions as to how to liquidate the collection if they choose to.  But the bottom line is, I'll be gone, and what happens to the collection is of absolutely no concern to me.  I can't take a single earthly possession with me when I depart, so to worry about what happens to my models (or any other possession) is time wasted.  All that is/was important, is that they gave me enjoyment while I was here.    

@graeme-ogg, ...or a younger person in the tech field pulling down a very comfortable salary for his age. The subject matter for those makers is very revealing.