Thoughts on Raymond Paszkiewics, Jr auction (round 1)

Posted by: @randyrusk

@john-quilter It’s 18% if you pay by money order or check. It’s 21% if you pay by credit or debit card.

Thanks, I did not know that.  Was sure I read somewhere it was 25%

@ed-davis I noted that the 2 MOC 1949 Buicks were listed as Conquest 1952 Buicks because they were shown with the wrong boxes. Both sold for around $130 each which is very low and a real bargain for the winners.

The explanation for so low prices on models we were expecting to command way more is the change of trend in collecting. There is no much value in metal models anymore other than a few some hardcore collectors don't already have. Resin and details is the new trend but curiously, none of these listings went crazy. The "toy"  models were really grabbing the attention.

There was only one model I was really interested in all these pages. The lot of 2 Matrix models sold for $130. So........... no big deal. I will not loose sleep tonight......I didn't even bid LOL.

Posted by: @ed-davis

@nickies 

At one time buying as an investment might have been ok, but for now I agree with you. I was surprised at how low prices were for some Conquest, Minimarque, and MOC models.  The important thing now is to buy what you like and enjoy them.

A large collection is a disposable income statement and not an investment. It has never been. 

I've mentioned before that the prices of some of the models listed on eBay are not representative of what they actually sell for. Auctions like this will show a model's real market value. This well-promoted auction appealed to the core of the 1/43 collecting community. In most cases, you can add your buyer's fees to the winning bid and get closer to the real value of the model rather than banking on unsold eBay listings.  

Posted by: @jkuvakas

I've mentioned before that the prices of some of the models listed on eBay are not representative of what they actually sell for. Auctions like this will show a model's real market value. This well-promoted auction appealed to the core of the 1/43 collecting community. In most cases, you can add your buyer's fees to the winning bid and get closer to the real value of the model rather than banking on unsold eBay listings.  

I do agree with you, John, but I also wonder if the mass sale does not mean the models are competing in price against one another. Some buyers must have passed-up on good buys because their budgets were targeted at more prized pieces - which when they possible lost or paid less for them, remembered items they may have bad higher for, earlier.  There are so many variables.

@karl I grabbed all the MOC etc. pics Karl.

@john-quilter The 25% is if you bid through liveauctioneers.com. I bid directly on the Ralston website to get a lower fee.

More on prices. I noticed that, in general, if a model has been made more recently and more accurately in resin or white metal, the price was lower than expectations. One look at all those yellowed epoxy resin headlights on most Victory, MM43, and Top Marques models had me shying away. I saw only old Daimler House Conquest and Madison models, and very old Westerns, rather than Buz Kirkel's better versions. Finally it seemed like the auction house put their estimate at "$200-$300" on practically everything, and in order to make that seem reasonable they lumped Goldvargs and Neos two to a lot, or even four BRKs to a lot. I would have bid on much more if the lots had been split, so I think this factored into lower prices.

@mg-harv Regarding yellow headlamps, French model makers more often than not put yellow lenses in headlamps and even painted silvered metal 'lenses' in yellow paint - due to French headlamps being yellow or having yellow-tinted bulbs by law upto 1993. I sense this is the reason the Victory models had yellow headlams as they were manufacture by CCC in France, (I believe). Similarly, in the U.K. one used to see beam deflectors on cars that might frequently travel to Europe (again, law) which would similarly be tinted yellow. So I would not discount Rolls Royce owners having yellow headlamps for their frequent trips to Deauville! Hence the Top Marques having them. Do not be put off !

Selective yellow is a colour for automotive lamps, particularly headlamps and other road-illumination lamps such as fog lamps.[1] Under ECE regulations, headlamps were formerly permitted to be either white or selective yellow—in France, selective yellow was mandatory for all vehicles' road-illumination lamps until 1993.(Wikipedia - Selective Yellow).

@charles-rockett No, I don't think this was an intention here (except for French cars, of course). I have seen some of my Top Marques turn more yellow through the years. I recently received an MM$# model that I believe was old store stock - no yellowing at all. So the culprit seems to be exposure to light, not aging.

Some comments on the Elegance models in the auction. As Nickies said, “a real bargain for the winners...” Nine of the thirteen ELE models sold low. There were 4 ELE models that are rare and normally sell high always, but not here. They are very hard to come by, and I suppose that no one attending this auction (or the auction house, for that matter) knew exactly what these models were.

LOT 368 ELE 1951 6 Door Series 86 King Ibn Seoud of Arabia Black sold $300.00

Good price. This sells for 450-650. Black isn’t the actual color of the 1:1’s, however they are a rare model. Not many produced. I had Claude make one for me in the original color as ordered from Hess & Eisenhardt.

LOT 368 ELE 131 1951 Station Wagon White sold $260.00

Another deal. Sells for 450 to 600. The more rare version with Continental Kit is higher priced.

LOT 370 ELE 140 1951 Coupe Two-Tone Metallic Green sold $180.00

This s a rare model, only 20 pieces produced. Sells in the $400.00 to $600.00 range.

LOT 371 ELE 141 1951 Series 60 Black Sold $170.00

These S60’s are not plentiful, and this is a great price. Normally, this can be found for $350.00 to $450.00

LOT 301 ELE 110 1957 Eldo Seville Sold $180.00

Another great deal. Normally found for $300.00. Not many produced.

LOT 302 ELE 301 LA DIFFERENCE Model 1948 Sold $120.00 Chrysler Crown Imperial Hunting Car of King Ibn Seoud of Arabia

Models with the “La Difference” mark are those that have been modified or became a transformation kit from models of another company, as an example SOLIDO or RIO.

This model is rare...only a handful produced. It is a steal at this price. Easily $400.00 to $600.00 to an Elegance collector.

LOT 303 ELE 146 1976 Fleetwood 75 Limousine Sold $170.00

A bargain. This model normally sells for $350.00 to $450.00

LOT 258 ELE 125 1950 Funeral Service Car Sold $290.00

Not many made. Normally traded for $300.00 when it can be found.

LOT 259 ELE 123 1950 Series 86 Flower Car Sold $320.00

Not many made. Normally traded for $300.00 when it can be found. More expensive (and rare) if flowers are in well.

LOT 260 ELE 108 1950 Fleetwood 75 Sold $120.00

There are several iterations of this model. This one is usually seen around $300.00

LOT 261 ELE 120 1950 Series 62 Convertible Sold $160.00

These 62’s are readily available and sell between $150.00 and $250.00 when available. Two versions were produced, the first series has yellow headlamps and the second series clear headlamps after the laws in France were changed relative to yellow headlights in 1993.

LOT 299 ELE 504 1931 V16 Fleetwood Cabriolet Sold $60.00

Any Elegance at 60 bucks is a good deal. This goes for about $250.00 or more when seen on eBay.

LOT 300 ELE 122 1939 Rolls Royce Wraith James Young 2 Door Coupe Sold $60.00

Don’t know what to say about this going for $60.00. There is an incredible number of 1:43 Rolls Royce collectors world-wide and they have hundreds of models each. Many of these were made by Claude who may have made more RR models than Cadillac! I have over 100 different photos of his RR work (and about 600 of his Cadillac work, excluding the book).

PICS from my collection...

1948 Crown Imperial

1951 Series 62

@lloyd-mecca I had long understood these - and VF models / Germany, to be the finest 1/43 scale Cadillacs available. So I was shocked at the prices - really, the biggest shock of the evening!

Thanks to Randy for starting this interesting post. I'm suprised to see that there were so many form members following this auction. It seems that the majority of the comments agree that a lot of the models sold were below retail price or market value. But how have you established retail price/market value and how can you be sure that you are right? I believe market value is a better terminology than retail price because we are dealing with the secondary market.If you have taken any statistic courses, you are familiar with the terms sample, sample size, median and average.In order to determine an accurate market value you must have access to a data base, the larger the data base, the more accurate your estimated market value. A good example is lot 370, the 1951 Cadillac coupe. It sold for $180 plus commission and only 20 were made. It was commented that it should sell in the $400-600 range. I will assume that $400-600 is the retail sale price some years ago and not a calculation of true market value based on a large sample size.If only 20 were made, is it safe to say that maybe 1 or 2 are sold yearly. Even over 5 years you will have a sample size too small to rely on the data. My point is that a reliable market value cannot be established for this model as there is an insufficient data to create a reliable estimate. I can only comment on one car as to whether it is well below market value. This is the Motorcity 1949 Buick Riviera coupe that Nickie commented on and it is the one that I won.The reason I can say this is because I have created a data base of all SALES over the past 5 years on EBAY for Western Models, Minimarque, Conquest/Madison, Motorcity/Design Studio/USA Models/American Models. I used Ebay because it is the only source with high  enough sales numbers to build a reliable data base. I update my data base once every 2 weeks and it takes about 15 minutes. In the case of the Motorcity 1949 Buick Hardtop, there were 37 sales of MOC 1949 Buicks over the past 6 years of which 8 were Riviera htps.I realize that 8 is still not a large sample size but I felt that by examining the prices of the other 29 Buicks  I was provided with some additional comfort. Sale prices for the hardtops ranged from US$330 to US$1800. I eliminated the high and the low as they were way outside the median and average.This left a tighter range of $500-800. The average price is $570 and the median is $528. Based on this, I can conclude that the market value for this car is in the mid $500 range. Thus I can feel confident that it sold well below market value.

Sorry for the dry, long winded response, but I thought someone might be interested.

@kenspear This is a very interesting addition to the debate and your data collection is a laudable exercise.  My thoughts return to my earlier comment of all these models competing with one another for the available dollars on that day.  Yes, with the widely advertised auction there are many buyers, (collectors and dealers) increasing the available dollars vying for the various pieces. But, I contend that the element of time - which e-bay sales benefit from; where auction sales do not - explains the difference in market values highlighted by your statistics.

If those collectors among us are wondering how best to realise the values of our life-long passion for these models I would err on allowing a longer time delay for the sale - such as e-bay or some kind of forum auction where pieces are available for view, but released for sale maybe 10 per week - one year's rather than one day's sale, and in this way, increase the available, competing dollars exponentially.  

Of course, this would not allow for an auction house to cover overheads and would have to be done as an interest or forum-based exercise.

This is all interesting, and I admire (and trust) Ken's work here. But Harv brings up a variable that has to be recognized. The market is changing, with newer models displaying greater fidelity and detail being made available. What was once the gold standard for accuracy may not hold up as well against some of the newer models as they did against their original competition. Put one of the new Brooklin Caribbeans next to an MOC, and you'll wonder why anyone would pay three times as much for the MOC. It's the same case with Stamp and Elegance. So, the price many collectors might have paid five years ago may not be as high as it would be if they bought today. It's a peculiarity of collectibles; they become less desirable with time and for many reasons. It's also why we should never consider our little jewels as investments. 

John: I agree with your comments above totally. Especially that these collectibles are not investments because the markets are changing as you mentioned. Rarity is starting to enter into the equation for DESIRABLE resin models the same thing that happened with  certain MOCs..As an example, a  couple of years ago, new Goldvarg releases sold for about $100. Once the DESIRABLEs were sold out by the vendors, the prices started rising with some recently reaching $200+. Once Brooklin and Automodello Caribbeans are sold out I wouldn't be surprised a year from now to see the same thing happen with them until the next technology change comes along and replaces them.