Thoughts on Raymond Paszkiewics, Jr auction (round 1)

@kenspear, well said. I'm currently watching this auction for a Goldvarg. The only pervious listing for one of these went for $227.

@kenspear 

Looks like you did a very good analysis of market prices, plus you continually update it. If I provided a specific Conquest model (brand, body style, and year) would you be willing to provide your estimate of market price? It’s  a relatively recent model, but no longer available. Thanks.

@ed-davis. No problem. Let me know the model and I can tell you how many were sold on Ebay for the past 7 years as well as the date sold, color and price. Just as an aside, there is a website called Worthpoint that provides sale price history for just about any model that you can think of. The problem is, they provide you with a free trial for a short period and then begin to charge you a monthly fee whether you use their service or not. That is where I got the idea to start my own free data base for my own use.

On personal level I don't feel using values from an auction whether ebay or a professional one like Lloyd Ralston reflect the market value. Why? Because especially for the latter professional dealers will account for most of the sales. Also, regarding the Lloyd Ralston auction international collectors ie from outside the USA may not have bothered as postage/packaging plus for me in the UK VAT at 20% and customs charges will have added considerably to the cost. Professional auctions have a value as they offer a clearance service and are a mid way point along the purchase continuum. I don't know if the USA has a similar TV programme to what we have called 'Bargain Hunt'. In this programme teams head for collectors markets and purchase items then try and sell them for a profit at an auction. Very few teams actually make a profit as in this type of auction the main buyers are those looking for stock to sell at collectors fairs! I am really glad that some of you were able to grab a bargain.

What Harv states is valid as older white metal and resin models may not match the quality of current models. Also, as the models in the Lloyd Ralston auction represented real life vehicles from older times the younger generation wouldn't be interested. Years ago Rod Ward writing in Model Auto Review put forward the thirty-year rule. People are interested in cars they started out driving, thirty years ago, or aspire to today - perhaps a Bugatti Tourbillon! 

Back in the mid-1960's a collectors' Holy Grail was likely the Marc Europa (the GTO kit was $3.50, with handbuilts $5.00). I longed to have one when I became aware that this model existed in the mid-1970's when it was featured in Reg Miles' Autominology column in Scale Models magazine. Then amazingly I saw one in the metal at a ModeleX show in the late 1990's. I cannot remember the price but I thought how crude it was when compared to a toy diecast model car of a similar period so I left it on the table. Doing a search one is for sale on ebay at $29.90!!!! Unfortunately, there is some damage. 

Obsolete toy cars are in a different league. Just think Matchbox models that cost 1/11 in the late 1960's are 'worth' many times that value if mint and boxed. Whilst Rio's and Solido Age D'or fetch very little. I bought a couple of the latter recently for £8.50 p&p included!

Posted by: @jkuvakas

@kenspear, well said. I'm currently watching this auction for a Goldvarg. The only pervious listing for one of these went for $227.

With 30 minutes left US $159.28 but how much are the delivery costs - vendor just states varies!

Posted by: @chris-sweetman

Posted by: @jkuvakas

@kenspear, well said. I'm currently watching this auction for a Goldvarg. The only pervious listing for one of these went for $227.

With 30 minutes left US $159.28 but how much are the delivery costs - vendor just states varies!

Sold for $300, not including delivery costs, so what exactly is this model worth?

All thought-provoking points. But, the only verifiable reference we have as collectors is the online auctions for sold units. A few bullet points:

• If only dealers were buying at auctions, we would all become dealers!
• Are we saying folks overseas would have paid a lot more but stayed away because of shipping charges? I'm not sure that makes a lot of sense. You would think they would jump on the great deals, pay the shipping charges and still come out ahead. 
• As far as I'm concerned, if a model sells for $300 on an open market, that's its value. There are many theories as to why prices get to where they are. Some folks say, "That was just two buyers who wanted it really bad." But that's what it's sold for!
• There are no secondary market price guides that can be as up-to-date as the auction summaries we see every day. They are all we have to go by.
• The mistake most folks make with auctions is thinking the listing prices or reserves are the market value. If the time doesn't sell, that's not the market value. No one will pay for it. 

@jkuvakas 

John,

I concur with all of your points. Two comments...

• I spoke to several collectors in Europe prior to the sale, and they all declined to participate due to shipping charges.
• A models value is what it sold for. There are a number of rare ELE items on eBay (and have been for a year) that are highly overpriced and they are not selling, to your point. If I won't get them at that price, no one will.

Recently, I had occasion to purchase a few items from the EU and the seller (who normally does not sell items) could not believe the shipping charges. So I think there is something to that.

@jkuvakas I once stated, and still contend, that if two bidders go head-to-head and drive a price way up, you should consider the third bid as 'market value'. If the high bidder (one person) had not been there, the 2nd and 3rd guys would have ended things at a much lower price. Those two yellow Records could have ended much, much lower.

hobbyDB collets price data, though it does not tell you the source. I also believe that any value used, be it Ralston, ebay, Vectis, or whomever, should include the total bidding cost. For example a Motor City that went for $170, actually cost the winner $200 to $212.50, depending on the auction venue. So consider the 'low' prices weren't necessarily that low. I think a lot of hobbyDB data under-estimates value because of this. BTW, I just sent my check to LR, avoiding their 3% for credit card use. Every little bit helps.

In what may be the biggest bargain I experienced, I got a MM43 Ford convertible for about $50, including fees and shipping. 

Further thoughts.

1)
Dealers are using their business' 'working capital' whilst collectors are using 'available capital' - possibly separate to their 'working capital' in other fields.
2)
20% VAT on $237.37 ($47.47) adds to $284.84. E-bay recently - and totally illegally tried to charge me 14.3% import to France for a model car (illegal because the value of the model was below chargeable statute). So 14.3% IMPORT on $ 237.37 ($33.94) now totals $318.78 without exchange rate charges! Something to think about when buying.
3)
Two buyers who want a model 'really bad' brings us to the rareity factor and yes, that reflects that model's market value.
4)
How do we measure market value? Indeed that is the kernal of the present discussion.
5)
Lastly, listed prices ($200 - $300) must reflect sales schutzpah. No salesman will undervalue their product - that's the buyer's domain.

@mg-harv 

Yes, I always inventory my models with all charges reflecting in the final price.

Posted by: @lloyd-mecca

Recently, I had occasion to purchase a few items from the EU and the seller (who normally does not sell items) could not believe the shipping charges. So I think there is something to that.

Above I mention the illegal import charges set by e-bay.  They also - through their Global Shipping Program - charged postage at double the going rate!

So we go from £149 to £234.70 (London to Paris) ! Luckily I retain an address in London, so the seller holds the item until I return and I pay £5 postage rather than e-bay's £85.70 - so if I sound as though I am burning with vitriol, that's the reason why.

@kenspear 

The model is a Conquest 1962 Oldsmobile Starfire Convertible (CON85).  I purchased the Garnet Mist open version in 2020, when it was first introduced.  This is one of the newer Conquest models and very nicely done.  If my memory is correct, Buz made about 50 of these in initial run including 4 different colors, open and closed versions.  I do not remember if any 2 door hardtops were made in the first 50.  I think this first 50 were almost all sold in one month.  Here is a picture of mine, which I likely posted in the past.

I am aware of Worthpoint, just have no interest in paying the monthly fee for its service.

Thanks for the offer to find any history of selling price.  Finally, just to be clear, I have no interest in selling this model.  It is one of my favorites.

Using Harv's $212.50 as an example then to add say $30 p&p (taken from an American eBay seller) = $243.50 + VAT at 20% (note p&p is VAT rated as it is deemed a service) total = $292 

In this example I have to pay VAT as it is over £135.

One good point model cars are exempt from UK excise duties.

For me living in the UK buying a model from the USA the value is greater than for anyone in the USA purchasing same.

Everything has to be taken into account to attain worth of an item, in this case an obsolete scale model car, which in itself is ephemeral.

Personally, I am not really bothered about either worth or value.

Firstly, I ask who I like the model?

Secondly, is it a price affordable to me? Bearing in mind up coming bills, VISA payments etc...

Thirdly, check other vendors for their prices? This is to ensure I am not paying over the odds. 

However, for the above the model may not be available elsewhere so I have to make a judgment.

Finally, I either buy or not. For the latter am I going to regret not making that purchase. Thinking of you here John and the Swan car!